Upcoming Bitcoin Block Reward Halving: Forecasts in Relation to BTC Price


The Upcoming Bitcoin Halving and Price Speculations

The upcoming reduction in block rewards for Bitcoin, known as halving, is sparking numerous speculations among investors. With the current price of Bitcoin hovering around $69,351, many people are wondering about the forecasts in light of this event.

Previous Experiences with Halving Cycles

By analyzing the last three halving cycles, it can be observed that after the reduction in Bitcoin block rewards, there was a significant increase in volatility and price drops of 30-40%. However, these drops were subsequently followed by sharp increases that led to new price highs.

Forecasts for the Future After the Next Halving

It is worth noting that the current decrease in Bitcoin price is less significant, with price drops not exceeding 25%. This may suggest that after the upcoming halving, we can expect a more moderate growth compared to what occurred after previous block reward reductions.

The Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF on the Market

It should also be noted that the introduction of the Spot Bitcoin ETF has contributed to deepening the scarcity of BTC in the market, leading to price increases. This new investment tool significantly alters market behavior, reducing long-term volatility and lowering current uncertainties.

Lucas Kiely emphasizes the necessity to change investment strategies. He recommends approaching the halving topic more like traditional equity investors rather than typical cryptocurrency investors.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders are Shaping the Market

An increasing number of Bitcoin holders are becoming long-term investors, influencing the reduction in price volatility. Currently, it is the long-term investors who have a decisive impact on the market, with their decisions shaping price behavior.

Stable Gains Post-Halving

It is predicted that after the upcoming halving, we can expect more stable and less spectacular increases in Bitcoin prices. The number of Bitcoins held by long-term investors has reached a record level, significantly altering market dynamics.

Reduced Bitcoin Price Volatility

The growing interest in the Spot Bitcoin ETF has contributed to a decrease in Bitcoin price volatility. As a result, more investors need to adjust their approach to achieve more stable and predictable investments in the cryptocurrency market.