Bitcoin: what will the fourth halving bring?

Bitcoin Approaching Its Fourth Quarterly Halving

Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, is approaching its fourth quarterly halving, which occurs on average every four years. This unique occasion is marked by observed price increases and volatility in the cryptocurrency market. It is worth examining how previous halvings have impacted the value of Bitcoin and how investors are preparing for the upcoming event.

Bitcoin’s Previous Halvings

The previous third Bitcoin halving took place in May 2020, when the price of the cryptocurrency surged from $6,842 to a record high of $9,822 just 17 days after the event. Prior to the halving, the price had dropped to $5,030 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the subsequent increases were impressive. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high seven months after the third halving.

The second Bitcoin halving occurred in July 2016, when the price of the cryptocurrency dropped by 4% from $734 to $517 within 24 hours of the event. Despite the post-halving price decline, seven months later, Bitcoin reached a new peak.

Forecasts for the Fourth Halving

The looming fourth quarterly Bitcoin halving is sparking speculation and concerns among investors. We are witnessing sideways market trends, suggesting some uncertainty about the effects of the next halving. Currently, BTC has only gained 2.6% over the last 14 days, which may indicate a disruption in market equilibrium.

Possible Scenarios After the Fourth Halving

Some analysts suggest that the recent launch of ETFs has disrupted Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. On the other hand, there is a theory that the billions of dollars flowing into ETFs tied to Bitcoin may demonstrate an intensification of the deflationary effect of halving. Investors are trying to prepare for potential changes and adjust their investment strategies to the new reality.


The development of the cryptocurrency market in the context of the approaching fourth quarterly Bitcoin halving is being closely observed by the entire community of investors. It is worthwhile to monitor market changes, analyze forecasts, and learn from past halving examples in order to make informed investment decisions. Undoubtedly, cryptocurrencies still evoke a lot of emotions and speculation among market participants.